Grasshoppers 3–2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Grasshoppers

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

G. Morandi 90', 68' (pen)

Asumah Abubakar 44'

E. Mahmoud 62'

L. Pos 21'

5/4/2024

Super League · Relegation Round - 1Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Grasshoppers46%

×Draw21%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrasshoppersExpected goals in this matchStade Lausanne-Ouchy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.74

Grasshoppers

2.06

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.74

Grasshoppers creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

1.62

creates per match

1.67

1.81

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Grasshoppers

1.62

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.67

allows per match

Grasshoppers

1.81

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.00on par

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw

67%

Grasshoppers or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

79%

Draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

54%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

26%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

87%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

61%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

34%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals

82%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals

52%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

58%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.62 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.67 + Grasshoppers defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Grasshoppers scores more

46%

level

21%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more

33%

Grasshoppers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

G. Morandi

Grasshoppers · M

9.2

Match Events

-5'

Bradley Fink

21'

L. Pos↳ Ismaël Gharbi

29'

Lamine Gassama

35'

Ismael Gharbi

44'

Asumah Abubakar↳ G. Morandi

62'

E. Mahmoud↳ L. Gassama

66'

Lucas Pos

67'

Elies Mahmoud

68'

G. MorandiPenalty

70'

F. de Carvalho← Asumah Abubakar

74'

Kristers Tobers

74'

T. Meyer← K. Tobers

79'

V. Damaşcan← A. Ajdini

79'

I. Diakité← L. Gassama

79'

83'

83'

87'

87'

88'

D. Babunski← F. Momoh

88'

F. Hoxha← T. Ndicka

88'

M. Eberhard← R. Bayard

90+3'

C. Abi← L. Pos

90'

G. Morandi↳ F. de Carvalho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrasshoppersStade

Overview

52%Possession48%

8Total Shots10

1.36Expected Goals (xG)1.01

4Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots10

3On Target4

4Off Target4

1Blocked2

7Inside Box4

1Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

443Total Passes409

376Accurate Passes337

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards1

5Offsides0