Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–5 FC ST. Gallen

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 1

FC ST. Gallen

11/5/2023

Super League · Round 13Stade Olympique de la Pontaise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy33%

×Draw23%

FC ST. Gallen44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade Lausanne-OuchyExpected goals in this matchFC ST. Gallen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.75

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.50

FC ST. Gallen

1.75

FC ST. Gallen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.03

creates per match

1.48

2.02

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.03

FC ST. Gallen

1.48

allows per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

2.02

FC ST. Gallen

1.97

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy-0.03on par

FC ST. Gallen+0.43scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy ↓

FC ST. Gallen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw

56%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or FC ST. Gallen

77%

Draw or FC ST. Gallen

67%

Winning margin

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+

16%

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals

78%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals

44%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals

19%

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals

83%

FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals

52%

FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)

43%

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.02 · 6 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.97 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.03 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.48 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more

33%

level

23%

FC ST. Gallen scores more

44%

FC ST. Gallen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff