FC ST. Gallen 1–0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

FC ST. Gallen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

2/24/2024

Super League · Round 25kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC ST. Gallen52%

×Draw23%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ST. GallenExpected goals in this matchStade Lausanne-Ouchy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.26

FC ST. Gallen

1.87

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.26

FC ST. Gallen creates 48% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 20 away

1.89

creates per match

1.15

1.38

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen

1.89

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.15

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen

1.38

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC ST. Gallen+0.00on par

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw

74%

FC ST. Gallen or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

77%

Draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

48%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+

29%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals

85%

FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals

56%

FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals

29%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals

72%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals

36%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)

67%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.38 · 146 matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.89 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.87

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.15 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more

52%

level

23%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more

26%

FC ST. Gallen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff