Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–1 FC Basel 1893

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Basel 1893

12/2/2023

Super League · Round 16Stade Olympique de la Pontaise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy28%

×Draw24%

FC Basel 189349%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade Lausanne-OuchyExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.74

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.25

FC Basel 1893

1.74

FC Basel 1893 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.03

creates per match

1.46

2.02

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.03

FC Basel 1893

1.46

allows per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

2.02

FC Basel 1893

1.47

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy-0.03on par

FC Basel 1893-0.06on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw

51%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or FC Basel 1893

76%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

72%

Winning margin

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+

11%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals

71%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals

36%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals

13%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

82%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

52%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)

36%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.02 · 6 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.47 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.03 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.46 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more

28%

level

24%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

49%

FC Basel 1893 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff