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Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 — Schweizer Cup 2019

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
10/30/2019Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · 8th FinalsCentre sportif de Colovray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy17%
×Draw18%
FC Basel 189366%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.19
FC Basel 1893
2.51

FC Basel 1893 creates 111% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

creates per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.38
FC Basel 1893
3.89

allows per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.13
FC Basel 1893
1.00

finishing

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw
34%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or FC Basel 1893
82%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
83%

Winning margin

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+
6%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals
70%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals
33%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals
12%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
92%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
71%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)
20%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 3.89, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.38 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

FC Basel 1893 attack 3.89 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more
17%
level
18%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
66%

FC Basel 1893 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schweizer Cup: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–2 FC Basel 1893

FC Basel 1893 beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2-1 in Schweizer Cup on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Centre sportif de Colovray in Nyon.