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Stade Gabesien vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer — Ligue 2 2020

Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
5/2/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Stade Gabesien42%
×Draw29%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Gabesien
1.21
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0.94

Stade Gabesien creates 29% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 27 away

creates per match

Stade Gabesien
1.23
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.26

allows per match

Stade Gabesien
0.62
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.19

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw
71%
Stade Gabesien or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
71%
Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
58%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
18%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
70%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
34%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
12%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
61%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
24%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
60%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.62 · 60 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 1.23 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.26 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more
42%
level
29%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
29%

Stade Gabesien at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'
H. Sellami

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Stade Gabesien 0–0 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Stade Gabesien and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on May 2, 2026.