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Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Stade Gabesien — Ligue 2 2020

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
F. Derguech 52'
H. Jihinaoui 29' (pen)
W. Jerbi 42'
12/7/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer64%
×Draw24%
Stade Gabesien12%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.62
Stade Gabesien
0.54

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 200% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 60 away

creates per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
2.12
Stade Gabesien
0.73

allows per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0.35
Stade Gabesien
1.12

finishing

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par
Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ↓

Stade Gabesien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw
88%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or Stade Gabesien
76%
Draw or Stade Gabesien
36%

Winning margin

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
36%
Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
80%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
48%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
22%
Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
42%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
10%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
84%
Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.35 · 26 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 2.12 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.62

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
64%
level
24%
Stade Gabesien scores more
12%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
H. JihinaouiPenalty
42'
W. Jerbi
52'
F. Derguech

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Stade Gabesien

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer beat Stade Gabesien 2-1 in Ligue 2 on December 7, 2025.

Goals: H. Jihinaoui (29' pen), W. Jerbi (42'), F. Derguech (52').