Stade Gabesien 2–2 Menzel Nour: Result & Stats

Stade Gabesien

FT

2 – 2

Menzel Nour

3/14/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Stade Gabesien64%

×Draw24%

Menzel Nour12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade GabesienExpected goals in this matchMenzel Nour

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.54

Stade Gabesien

1.61

Menzel Nour

0.54

Stade Gabesien creates 198% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 11 away

1.23

creates per match

0.45

0.62

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Stade Gabesien

1.23

Menzel Nour

0.45

allows per match

Stade Gabesien

0.62

Menzel Nour

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Menzel Nour+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

Menzel Nour →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw

88%

Stade Gabesien or Menzel Nour

76%

Draw or Menzel Nour

36%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

35%

Menzel Nour wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

80%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

48%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

22%

Menzel Nour 1+ goals

42%

Menzel Nour 2+ goals

10%

Menzel Nour 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

84%

Menzel Nour (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.62 · 60 matches

Menzel Nour away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 1.23 + Menzel Nour defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Menzel Nour attack 0.45 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more

64%

level

24%

Menzel Nour scores more

12%

Stade Gabesien at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff