Menzel Nour 0–0 Stade Gabesien: Result & Stats

Menzel Nour

FT

0 – 0

Stade Gabesien

2/6/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Municipal de Menzel Ennour

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Menzel Nour47%

×Draw30%

Stade Gabesien23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Menzel NourExpected goals in this matchStade Gabesien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.74

Menzel Nour

1.19

Stade Gabesien

0.74

Menzel Nour creates 61% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 60 away

1.25

creates per match

0.73

0.75

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Menzel Nour

1.25

Stade Gabesien

0.73

allows per match

Menzel Nour

0.75

Stade Gabesien

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Menzel Nour+0.00on par

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Nour ↓

Stade Gabesien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Menzel Nour or draw

77%

Menzel Nour or Stade Gabesien

70%

Draw or Stade Gabesien

53%

Winning margin

Menzel Nour wins by 2+

21%

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Menzel Nour 1+ goals

70%

Menzel Nour 2+ goals

33%

Menzel Nour 3+ goals

12%

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

52%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

17%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Menzel Nour (draw refunded)

67%

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Nour at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Nour attack 1.25 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + Menzel Nour defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Menzel Nour scores more

47%

level

30%

Stade Gabesien scores more

23%

Menzel Nour at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Menzel Nour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff