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Stade Gabesien vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane — Ligue 2 2020

Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
O. Belkhir 16'
A. Hosni 4'
1/4/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Stade Gabesien37%
×Draw32%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Gabesien
1.00
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.90

Stade Gabesien creates 11% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 23 away

creates per match

Stade Gabesien
1.23
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.17

allows per match

Stade Gabesien
0.62
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.78

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw
69%
Stade Gabesien or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
68%
Draw or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
63%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
14%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
63%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
26%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
8%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
59%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
23%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
54%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.62 · 60 matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 1.23 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.00

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 1.17 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more
37%
level
32%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
31%

Stade Gabesien at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
A. Hosni
16'
O. Belkhir

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Gabesien vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

Stade Gabesien beat Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2-0 in Ligue 2 on January 4, 2023.

Goals: A. Hosni (4'), O. Belkhir (16').

The match was played at Stade de Zrig in Gabès.