Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Stade Gabesien — Ligue 2 2020

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
B. Mejri 52'
A. Machraoui 1'
J. Gueblaoui 87'
B. Mokhtar 14'
5/20/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane60%
×Draw23%
Stade Gabesien17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.73
Stade Gabesien
0.78

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane creates 122% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 60 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
2.33
Stade Gabesien
0.73

allows per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.83
Stade Gabesien
1.12

finishing

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par
Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane ↓

Stade Gabesien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or draw
83%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or Stade Gabesien
77%
Draw or Stade Gabesien
40%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
34%
Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
82%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
52%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
25%
Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
54%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
18%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
78%
Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 2.33 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
60%
level
23%
Stade Gabesien scores more
17%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
A. Machraoui
14'
B. Mokhtar
52'
B. Mejri
87'
J. Gueblaoui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2 – 2 Stade Gabesien

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane and Stade Gabesien drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on May 20, 2023.

Goals: A. Machraoui (1'), B. Mokhtar (14'), B. Mejri (52'), J. Gueblaoui (87').

The match was played at Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane in Tunis.