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Stade Gabesien vs Djerba — Ligue 2 2020

Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Djerba
Djerba
3/11/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 13Métouia Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Stade Gabesien54%
×Draw29%
Djerba17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Gabesien
1.29
Djerba
0.58

Stade Gabesien creates 122% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 22 away

creates per match

Stade Gabesien
1.23
Djerba
0.55

allows per match

Stade Gabesien
0.62
Djerba
1.36

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par
Djerba+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

Djerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw
83%
Stade Gabesien or Djerba
71%
Draw or Djerba
46%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
26%
Djerba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
72%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
37%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
14%
Djerba 1+ goals
44%
Djerba 2+ goals
12%
Djerba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
76%
Djerba (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.62 · 60 matches

Djerba away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 1.23 + Djerba defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Djerba attack 0.55 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more
54%
level
29%
Djerba scores more
17%

Stade Gabesien at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Gabesien vs Djerba

Stade Gabesien and Djerba drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Métouia Municipal in Métouia.