Djerba 1–1 Stade Gabesien: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Djerba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stade Gabesien

A. Mazhoud 34' (pen)

B. Hemidi 4'

10/30/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Jerba Houmt Souk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Djerba41%

×Draw31%

Stade Gabesien28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DjerbaExpected goals in this matchStade Gabesien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.84

Djerba

1.10

Stade Gabesien

0.84

Djerba creates 31% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 60 away

1.09

creates per match

0.73

0.95

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Djerba

1.09

Stade Gabesien

0.73

allows per match

Djerba

0.95

Stade Gabesien

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djerba+0.00on par

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerba ↓

Stade Gabesien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Djerba or draw

72%

Djerba or Stade Gabesien

69%

Draw or Stade Gabesien

59%

Winning margin

Djerba wins by 2+

17%

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Djerba 1+ goals

67%

Djerba 2+ goals

30%

Djerba 3+ goals

10%

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

57%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

21%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Djerba (draw refunded)

60%

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerba at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerba attack 1.09 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + Djerba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Djerba scores more

41%

level

31%

Stade Gabesien scores more

28%

Djerba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Djerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

B. Hemidi

34'

A. MazhoudPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff