Stade de Reims W 1–3 Nantes W: Result & Stats

Stade de Reims W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Nantes W

R. Corboz 76' (pen)

J. Mossard 65'

K. Gago 54'

J. Rabanne 52'

10/19/2024

Feminine Division 1 · Round 5Stade Auguste-Delaune

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Stade de Reims W41%

×Draw23%

Nantes W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade de Reims WExpected goals in this matchNantes W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.61

Stade de Reims W

1.73

Nantes W

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 23 away

1.42

creates per match

1.43

1.79

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Stade de Reims W

1.42

Nantes W

1.43

allows per match

Stade de Reims W

1.79

Nantes W

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade de Reims W+0.00on par

Nantes W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Reims W ↓

Nantes W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Stade de Reims W or draw

64%

Stade de Reims W or Nantes W

77%

Draw or Nantes W

59%

Winning margin

Stade de Reims W wins by 2+

21%

Nantes W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stade de Reims W 1+ goals

82%

Stade de Reims W 2+ goals

52%

Stade de Reims W 3+ goals

25%

Nantes W 1+ goals

80%

Nantes W 2+ goals

48%

Nantes W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)

53%

Nantes W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Reims W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

Nantes W away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Reims W attack 1.42 + Nantes W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.73

Nantes W attack 1.43 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stade de Reims W scores more

41%

level

23%

Nantes W scores more

36%

Stade de Reims W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stade de Reims W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

K. Gago

Nantes W · F

7.9

Match Events

18'

C. Ndzana← L. Calba

46'

K. Adamek← M. Boucly

46'

J. Rabanne← Andrea Recio

46'

D. Marcano← N. Vagre

52'

J. Rabanne↳ M. Uffren

54'

K. Gago↳ J. Pasquereau

55'

C. Cosme← M. Cosson

64'

J. Swierot← Mélissa Gomes

64'

H. Sangaré← J. Nassi

65'

J. Mossard↳ L. Fleury

75'

Emily Raechel Burns

76'

R. CorbozPenalty

80'

L. Mana← A. Le Moguédec

81'

T. Eninger← L. Storti

90'

L. Rageot← M. Uffren

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StadeNantes

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots13

4Corners4

10Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots13

6On Target6

10Off Target5

1Blocked2

10Inside Box8

7Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

419Total Passes332

300Accurate Passes208

72%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3