Nantes W 1–1 Stade de Reims W: Result & Stats

Nantes W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stade de Reims W

D. Marcano 66'

L. Bourgain 85'

1/18/2025

Feminine Division 1 · Round 13Stade Marcel-Saupin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nantes W45%

×Draw25%

Stade de Reims W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nantes WExpected goals in this matchStade de Reims W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.23

Nantes W

1.56

Stade de Reims W

1.23

Nantes W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 65 away

1.18

creates per match

1.31

1.14

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Nantes W

1.18

Stade de Reims W

1.31

allows per match

Nantes W

1.14

Stade de Reims W

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nantes W+0.00on par

Stade de Reims W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes W ↓

Stade de Reims W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nantes W or draw

70%

Nantes W or Stade de Reims W

75%

Draw or Stade de Reims W

55%

Winning margin

Nantes W wins by 2+

23%

Stade de Reims W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nantes W 1+ goals

79%

Nantes W 2+ goals

46%

Nantes W 3+ goals

21%

Stade de Reims W 1+ goals

71%

Stade de Reims W 2+ goals

35%

Stade de Reims W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nantes W (draw refunded)

60%

Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes W at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Stade de Reims W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes W attack 1.18 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.56

Stade de Reims W attack 1.31 + Nantes W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nantes W scores more

45%

level

25%

Stade de Reims W scores more

30%

Nantes W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nantes W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

D. Marcano

Nantes W · D

8.2

Match Events

46'

L. Notel← M. Haelewyn

66'

D. Marcano

67'

L. Rageot← C. Robillard

67'

L. Storti← D. Marcano

67'

M. Gyau← C. Ndzana

70'

Amira Braham

77'

L. Bourgain← A. Le Moguédec

77'

L. Mana← H. Sangaré

78'

R. Éloissant← L. Fleury

84'

E. Sumo← A. Ould Braham

84'

J. Swierot← R. Corboz

85'

L. Bourgain↳ L. Mana

90+1'

Eva Sumo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NantesStade

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots13

2Corners5

11Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots13

3On Target5

7Off Target6

5Blocked2

6Inside Box7

9Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

497Total Passes399

383Accurate Passes286

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0