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Stade de Reims W vs Guingamp W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Stade de Reims W
Stade de Reims W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guingamp W
Guingamp W
A. Le Moguédec 19'
4/23/2025Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 21Stade Auguste-Delaune

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Stade de Reims W50%
×Draw23%
Guingamp W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade de Reims W
1.83
Guingamp W
1.28

Stade de Reims W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 73 away

creates per match

Stade de Reims W
1.42
Guingamp W
0.77

allows per match

Stade de Reims W
1.79
Guingamp W
2.25

finishing

Stade de Reims W+0.00on par
Guingamp W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Reims W ↓

Guingamp W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stade de Reims W or draw
73%
Stade de Reims W or Guingamp W
77%
Draw or Guingamp W
50%

Winning margin

Stade de Reims W wins by 2+
28%
Guingamp W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stade de Reims W 1+ goals
84%
Stade de Reims W 2+ goals
54%
Stade de Reims W 3+ goals
28%
Guingamp W 1+ goals
72%
Guingamp W 2+ goals
37%
Guingamp W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)
65%
Guingamp W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Reims W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

Guingamp W away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.25 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Reims W attack 1.42 + Guingamp W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.83

Guingamp W attack 0.77 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stade de Reims W scores more
50%
level
23%
Guingamp W scores more
27%

Stade de Reims W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stade de Reims W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
A. Le MoguédecStade de Reims WStade de Reims W · M
8.5

Match Events

-5'
Anais Ribeyra
19'
A. Le Moguédec
23'
Jade Zohra Nassi
27'
Sofia Guellati
32'
Alison Peniguel
46'
L. Mana← J. Swierot
59'
Assimina Maoulida
61'
Grace Kazadi Ntambwe
61'
M. Seguin← A. Donnary
61'
S. Bhandari← A. Ribeyra
77'
I. Touriss← M. Bigot
77'
N. Eto← L. Peneau
79'
Alison Peniguel
79'
Alison Peniguel
80'
L. Bourgain← L. Calba
80'
Mélissa Gomes← H. Sangaré
81'
R. Corboz← A. Le Moguédec
82'
Sana Daoudi
86'
L. Autin← G. Kazadi
90+4'
Marie-Morgane Sieber

Possession

46%Stade

Shots

11Stade

Pass accuracy

50%Stade

Statistics

StadeGuingamp
Overview
46%Possession54%
11Total Shots4
5Corners5
9Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots4
4On Target2
7Off Target0
0Blocked2
7Inside Box3
4Outside Box1
Passing
46%Possession54%
352Total Passes412
286Accurate Passes336
81%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls10
2Yellow Cards7
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Stade de Reims W vs Guingamp W

Stade de Reims W beat Guingamp W 1-0 in Feminine Division 1 on April 23, 2025.

Goals: A. Le Moguédec (19').

Guingamp W controlled possession (54%) and registered 4 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Reims.