Guingamp W 0–0 Stade de Reims W: Result & Stats

Guingamp W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stade de Reims W

9/30/2023

Feminine Division 1 · Round 2Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Guingamp W38%

×Draw23%

Stade de Reims W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guingamp WExpected goals in this matchStade de Reims W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.67

Guingamp W

1.65

Stade de Reims W

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 65 away

1.34

creates per match

1.31

2.03

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Guingamp W

1.34

Stade de Reims W

1.31

allows per match

Guingamp W

2.03

Stade de Reims W

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp W+0.00on par

Stade de Reims W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp W ↓

Stade de Reims W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Guingamp W or draw

61%

Guingamp W or Stade de Reims W

77%

Draw or Stade de Reims W

62%

Winning margin

Guingamp W wins by 2+

19%

Stade de Reims W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Guingamp W 1+ goals

81%

Guingamp W 2+ goals

49%

Guingamp W 3+ goals

23%

Stade de Reims W 1+ goals

81%

Stade de Reims W 2+ goals

50%

Stade de Reims W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Guingamp W (draw refunded)

49%

Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp W at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.03 · 76 matches

Stade de Reims W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp W attack 1.34 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.65

Stade de Reims W attack 1.31 + Guingamp W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guingamp W scores more

38%

level

23%

Stade de Reims W scores more

39%

Stade de Reims W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stade de Reims W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff