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Stade de Mbour vs Douanes — Ligue 1 2019

Stade de Mbour
Stade de Mbour
FT
0 – 2
Douanes
Douanes
12/8/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Caroline Faye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Stade de Mbour34%
×Draw35%
Douanes31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade de Mbour
0.82
Douanes
0.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

creates per match

Stade de Mbour
0.62
Douanes
0.76

allows per match

Stade de Mbour
0.77
Douanes
1.02

finishing

Stade de Mbour+0.00on par
Douanes+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Mbour ↓

Douanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–116%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Stade de Mbour or draw
69%
Stade de Mbour or Douanes
65%
Draw or Douanes
66%

Winning margin

Stade de Mbour wins by 2+
11%
Douanes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stade de Mbour 1+ goals
56%
Stade de Mbour 2+ goals
20%
Stade de Mbour 3+ goals
5%
Douanes 1+ goals
54%
Douanes 2+ goals
18%
Douanes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Stade de Mbour (draw refunded)
52%
Douanes (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Mbour at home — creates 0.62, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

Douanes away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Mbour attack 0.62 + Douanes defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.82

Douanes attack 0.76 + Stade de Mbour defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Stade de Mbour scores more
34%
level
35%
Douanes scores more
31%

Stade de Mbour at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Stade de Mbour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Stade de Mbour 0–2 Douanes

Douanes beat Stade de Mbour 2-0 in Ligue 1 on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Caroline Faye in Mbour.