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Douanes vs Stade de Mbour — Ligue 1 2019

Douanes
Douanes
FT
2 – 1
Stade de Mbour
Stade de Mbour
3/13/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Municipal De Ndiarème

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Douanes35%
×Draw34%
Stade de Mbour32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douanes
0.89
Stade de Mbour
0.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 60 away

creates per match

Douanes
0.83
Stade de Mbour
0.70

allows per match

Douanes
0.98
Stade de Mbour
0.95

finishing

Douanes+0.00on par
Stade de Mbour+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douanes ↓

Stade de Mbour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Douanes or draw
68%
Douanes or Stade de Mbour
66%
Draw or Stade de Mbour
65%

Winning margin

Douanes wins by 2+
12%
Stade de Mbour wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Douanes 1+ goals
59%
Douanes 2+ goals
22%
Douanes 3+ goals
6%
Stade de Mbour 1+ goals
57%
Stade de Mbour 2+ goals
21%
Stade de Mbour 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Douanes (draw refunded)
52%
Stade de Mbour (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douanes at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

Stade de Mbour away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douanes attack 0.83 + Stade de Mbour defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Stade de Mbour attack 0.70 + Douanes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Douanes scores more
35%
level
34%
Stade de Mbour scores more
32%

Douanes at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Douanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Douanes vs Stade de Mbour

Douanes beat Stade de Mbour 2-1 in Ligue 1 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal De Ndiarème in Dakar.