Stade de Bertoua 0–1 OFTA: Result & Stats

Stade de Bertoua

FT

0 – 1

OFTA

8/31/2021

Elite Two · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stade de Bertoua57%

×Draw25%

OFTA18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade de BertouaExpected goals in this matchOFTA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.74

Stade de Bertoua

1.56

OFTA

0.74

Stade de Bertoua creates 111% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

1.63

creates per match

0.60

0.89

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Stade de Bertoua

1.63

OFTA

0.60

allows per match

Stade de Bertoua

0.89

OFTA

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

OFTA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Bertoua ↓

OFTA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Stade de Bertoua or draw

82%

Stade de Bertoua or OFTA

75%

Draw or OFTA

43%

Winning margin

Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+

30%

OFTA wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals

79%

Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals

46%

Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals

21%

OFTA 1+ goals

52%

OFTA 2+ goals

17%

OFTA 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)

76%

OFTA (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Bertoua at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

OFTA away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Bertoua attack 1.63 + OFTA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

OFTA attack 0.60 + Stade de Bertoua defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Stade de Bertoua scores more

57%

level

25%

OFTA scores more

18%

Stade de Bertoua at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Stade de Bertoua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff