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OFTA vs Stade de Bertoua — Elite Two 2020

OFTA
OFTA
FT
3 – 4
Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
3/11/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

OFTA42%
×Draw30%
Stade de Bertoua29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFTA
1.17
Stade de Bertoua
0.92

OFTA creates 27% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

OFTA
0.94
Stade de Bertoua
0.72

allows per match

OFTA
1.11
Stade de Bertoua
1.39

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par
Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

Stade de Bertoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

OFTA or draw
71%
OFTA or Stade de Bertoua
70%
Draw or Stade de Bertoua
58%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+
18%
Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals
69%
OFTA 2+ goals
33%
OFTA 3+ goals
11%
Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
60%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
23%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)
59%
Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.94 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + OFTA defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

OFTA scores more
42%
level
30%
Stade de Bertoua scores more
29%

OFTA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "OFTA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OFTA 3 – 4 Stade de Bertoua

Stade de Bertoua beat OFTA 4-3 in Elite Two on March 11, 2023.