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Stade de Bertoua vs Lion Blessé — Elite Two 2020

Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
CANC
14:30
Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
5/28/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stade de Bertoua52%
×Draw26%
Lion Blessé22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade de Bertoua
1.48
Lion Blessé
0.86

Stade de Bertoua creates 72% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Stade de Bertoua
1.63
Lion Blessé
0.83

allows per match

Stade de Bertoua
0.89
Lion Blessé
1.33

finishing

Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par
Lion Blessé+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Bertoua ↓

Lion Blessé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stade de Bertoua or draw
78%
Stade de Bertoua or Lion Blessé
74%
Draw or Lion Blessé
48%

Winning margin

Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
26%
Lion Blessé wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
77%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
43%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
19%
Lion Blessé 1+ goals
58%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
21%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
70%
Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Bertoua at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Lion Blessé away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Bertoua attack 1.63 + Lion Blessé defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lion Blessé attack 0.83 + Stade de Bertoua defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stade de Bertoua scores more
52%
level
26%
Lion Blessé scores more
22%

Stade de Bertoua at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stade de Bertoua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stade de Bertoua face Lion Blessé (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with Stade de Bertoua hosting Lion Blessé. Match starts May 28, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.