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Lion Blessé vs Stade de Bertoua — Elite Two 2020

Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
CANC
14:00
Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
4/5/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lion Blessé57%
×Draw22%
Stade de Bertoua21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lion Blessé
1.91
Stade de Bertoua
1.07

Lion Blessé creates 79% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Lion Blessé
2.43
Stade de Bertoua
0.72

allows per match

Lion Blessé
1.43
Stade de Bertoua
1.39

finishing

Lion Blessé+0.00on par
Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lion Blessé ↓

Stade de Bertoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lion Blessé or draw
79%
Lion Blessé or Stade de Bertoua
78%
Draw or Stade de Bertoua
43%

Winning margin

Lion Blessé wins by 2+
33%
Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lion Blessé 1+ goals
85%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
57%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
30%
Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
66%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
29%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
73%
Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lion Blessé at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lion Blessé attack 2.43 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.91

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + Lion Blessé defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lion Blessé scores more
57%
level
22%
Stade de Bertoua scores more
21%

Lion Blessé at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lion Blessé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lion Blessé host Stade de Bertoua

April 5, 2022: Lion Blessé take on Stade de Bertoua in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.