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Stade de Bertoua vs Dynamo de Douala — Elite Two 2020

Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
FT
0 – 3
Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
5/10/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stade de Bertoua47%
×Draw28%
Dynamo de Douala25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade de Bertoua
1.34
Dynamo de Douala
0.89

Stade de Bertoua creates 51% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Stade de Bertoua
1.63
Dynamo de Douala
0.89

allows per match

Stade de Bertoua
0.89
Dynamo de Douala
1.06

finishing

Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par
Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Bertoua ↓

Dynamo de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stade de Bertoua or draw
75%
Stade de Bertoua or Dynamo de Douala
72%
Draw or Dynamo de Douala
53%

Winning margin

Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
22%
Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
74%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
39%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
15%
Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
59%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
22%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
65%
Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Bertoua at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Bertoua attack 1.63 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Dynamo de Douala attack 0.89 + Stade de Bertoua defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stade de Bertoua scores more
47%
level
28%
Dynamo de Douala scores more
25%

Stade de Bertoua at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stade de Bertoua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Stade de Bertoua 0–3 Dynamo de Douala

Dynamo de Douala beat Stade de Bertoua 3-0 in Elite Two on May 10, 2023.