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Dynamo de Douala vs Stade de Bertoua — Elite Two 2020

Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
CANC
00:00
Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
6/11/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dynamo de Douala50%
×Draw27%
Stade de Bertoua24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo de Douala
1.46
Stade de Bertoua
0.92

Dynamo de Douala creates 59% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.53
Stade de Bertoua
0.72

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.11
Stade de Bertoua
1.39

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par
Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Stade de Bertoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw
76%
Dynamo de Douala or Stade de Bertoua
73%
Draw or Stade de Bertoua
50%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
25%
Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
77%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
43%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
18%
Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
60%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
23%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
68%
Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.53 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more
50%
level
27%
Stade de Bertoua scores more
24%

Dynamo de Douala at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dynamo de Douala vs Stade de Bertoua — Match Preview

Dynamo de Douala face Stade de Bertoua on June 11, 2022 in this Elite Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.