Stade Briochin 2–0 Chateauroux: Result & Stats

Stade Briochin

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chateauroux

2/11/2022

League #63 · Round 21Stade Fred Aubert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stade Briochin50%

×Draw27%

Chateauroux23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade BriochinExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.87

Stade Briochin

1.42

Chateauroux

0.87

Stade Briochin creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

1.40

creates per match

1.14

0.60

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Stade Briochin

1.40

Chateauroux

1.14

allows per match

Stade Briochin

0.60

Chateauroux

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Briochin+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Briochin ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Stade Briochin or draw

77%

Stade Briochin or Chateauroux

73%

Draw or Chateauroux

50%

Winning margin

Stade Briochin wins by 2+

25%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Stade Briochin 1+ goals

76%

Stade Briochin 2+ goals

41%

Stade Briochin 3+ goals

17%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

58%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

22%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Stade Briochin (draw refunded)

68%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Briochin at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Briochin attack 1.40 + Chateauroux defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chateauroux attack 1.14 + Stade Briochin defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stade Briochin scores more

50%

level

27%

Chateauroux scores more

23%

Stade Briochin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stade Briochin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff