Chateauroux 2–2 Stade Briochin: Result & Stats

Chateauroux

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Stade Briochin

Opa Sanganté 49'

F. N'Goma 41' (pen)

A. Gomis-Maillard 64' (pen)

F. Guirassy 15'

12/2/2022

League #63 · Round 14Stade Gaston Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chateauroux33%

×Draw24%

Stade Briochin43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChateaurouxExpected goals in this matchStade Briochin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.63

Chateauroux

1.38

Stade Briochin

1.63

Stade Briochin creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

1.75

1.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Chateauroux

1.25

Stade Briochin

1.75

allows per match

Chateauroux

1.50

Stade Briochin

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Stade Briochin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Stade Briochin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw

57%

Chateauroux or Stade Briochin

76%

Draw or Stade Briochin

67%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+

15%

Stade Briochin wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals

75%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

40%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

16%

Stade Briochin 1+ goals

80%

Stade Briochin 2+ goals

48%

Stade Briochin 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

43%

Stade Briochin (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Stade Briochin away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.25 + Stade Briochin defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Stade Briochin attack 1.75 + Chateauroux defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chateauroux scores more

33%

level

24%

Stade Briochin scores more

43%

Stade Briochin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stade Briochin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

R. Basque

15'

F. Guirassy

41'

F. N'GomaPenalty

49'

Opa Sanganté

55'

J. Mexique← Opa Sanganté

60'

A. Ndour

64'

A. Gomis-MaillardPenalty

67'

N. Ntolla

69'

M. Jean-Pierre← L. Yobé

69'

71'

74'

76'

90'

Chateauroux

Stade

40

Laiton

22

Angoua

6

▼

23

8

14

12

15

11

⚽

Guirassy

9

⚽

Gomis-Mai

24

▼

Yobé

1

Delecroix

13

Mbengue

19

⚽

▼

Sanganté

27

Youssouf

4

Ouaneh

15

▼

Grange

18

⚽

6

24

7

9

Manager: M. Chabert

55'▲J. Mexique←▼Opa Sanganté

74'▲N. Ntolla←▼R. Grange

Chateauroux substitutes

8Mexique11Ntolla17Fouda30Plumain33Bozkurt

Manager: G. Allanou

69'▲M. Jean-Pierre←▼L. Yobé

69'▲M. Remars←▼M. Illien

Stade Briochin substitutes

3Jean-Pierre10Remars1Bellaarouch17Janno33Bouaziz

Match Recap: Chateauroux vs Stade Briochin

Chateauroux and Stade Briochin drew 2-2 in League #63 on December 2, 2022.

Goals: F. Guirassy (15'), F. N'Goma (41' pen), Opa Sanganté (49'), A. Gomis-Maillard (64' pen).

The match was played at Stade Gaston Petit in Châteauroux.

Chateauroux vs Stade Briochin — League #63 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chateauroux vs Stade Briochin