Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Niort: Result & Stats

Stade Brestois 29

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Niort

2/16/2018

Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade Francis-Le-Blé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Stade Brestois 2960%

×Draw23%

Niort17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade Brestois 29Expected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.81

Stade Brestois 29

1.77

Niort

0.81

Stade Brestois 29 creates 119% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 96 away

2.00

creates per match

0.83

0.80

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Stade Brestois 29

2.00

Niort

0.83

allows per match

Stade Brestois 29

0.80

Niort

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Brestois 29+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Brestois 29 ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stade Brestois 29 or draw

83%

Stade Brestois 29 or Niort

77%

Draw or Niort

40%

Winning margin

Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+

34%

Niort wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals

83%

Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals

53%

Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals

26%

Niort 1+ goals

56%

Niort 2+ goals

19%

Niort 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)

78%

Niort (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Brestois 29 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Niort away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.53 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Brestois 29 attack 2.00 + Niort defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Niort attack 0.83 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Stade Brestois 29 scores more

60%

level

23%

Niort scores more

17%

Stade Brestois 29 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Stade Brestois 29 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff