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Niort vs Stade Brestois 29 — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
4/14/2017Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade René-Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Niort27%
×Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
0.99
Stade Brestois 29
1.36

Stade Brestois 29 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 22 away

creates per match

Niort
1.11
Stade Brestois 29
1.45

allows per match

Niort
1.28
Stade Brestois 29
0.86

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Stade Brestois 29+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Stade Brestois 29 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Niort or draw
55%
Niort or Stade Brestois 29
73%
Draw or Stade Brestois 29
73%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
10%
Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
63%
Niort 2+ goals
26%
Niort 3+ goals
8%
Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals
74%
Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals
39%
Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
38%
Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Stade Brestois 29 away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.11 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.45 + Niort defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Niort scores more
27%
level
27%
Stade Brestois 29 scores more
45%

Stade Brestois 29 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stade Brestois 29 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niort vs Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 beat Niort 3-0 in Ligue 2 on April 14, 2017.

The match was played at Stade René-Gaillard in Niort.