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Stade Brestois 29 vs Marseille — Ligue 1 2018

Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Marseille
Marseille
M. Camara 45+6'
E. Wahi 69' (pen)
Luis Henrique 48', 26'
M. Greenwood 31' (pen), 3'
8/17/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Francis-Le Blé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Stade Brestois 2940%
×Draw24%
Marseille35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Brestois 29
1.55
Marseille
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

creates per match

Stade Brestois 29
1.52
Marseille
1.57

allows per match

Stade Brestois 29
1.30
Marseille
1.58

finishing

Stade Brestois 29-0.06on par
Marseille-0.02on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Brestois 29 ↓

Marseille →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Stade Brestois 29 or draw
65%
Stade Brestois 29 or Marseille
76%
Draw or Marseille
60%

Winning margin

Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+
20%
Marseille wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals
79%
Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals
46%
Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals
20%
Marseille 1+ goals
76%
Marseille 2+ goals
42%
Marseille 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)
53%
Marseille (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Brestois 29 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.30 · 26 matches

Marseille away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.52 + Marseille defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.55

Marseille attack 1.57 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stade Brestois 29 scores more
40%
level
24%
Marseille scores more
35%

Stade Brestois 29 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stade Brestois 29 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
Luis HenriqueMarseilleMarseille · M
8.5

Match Events

3'
M. Greenwood↳ A. Harit
7'
Ludovic AjorquePenalty confirmed
7'
Derek Cornelius
9'
Romain Del CastilloMissed penalty
16'
Mathias Pereira Lage
26'
Luis Henrique↳ A. Harit
30'
Jonas Martin
31'
M. GreenwoodPenalty
45+1'
Kenny Lala
45+6'
M. Camara↳ R. Del Castillo
48'
Luis Henrique
64'
R. Faivre← L. Ajorque
69'
E. WahiPenalty
70'
A. Camblan← Mathias Pereira Lage
70'
H. Mbock← J. Martin
71'
B. Meïté← Pol Lirola
71'
F. Moumbagna← E. Wahi
74'
Jordan Amavi
79'
E. Sternal← F. Moumbagna
84'
L. Zogbé← J. Amavi
88'
K. Abdallah← A. Harit
88'
V. Rongier← Luis Henrique

Possession

50%Stade

Shots

10Stade

Pass accuracy

50%Stade

Statistics

StadeMarseille
Overview
50%Possession50%
10Total Shots7
1.32Expected Goals (xG)2.38
5Corners0
12Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots7
7On Target5
2Off Target1
1Blocked1
6Inside Box7
4Outside Box0
Passing
50%Possession50%
493Total Passes513
423Accurate Passes446
86%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
0.66Goals Prevented0.66
Discipline
12Fouls8
4Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Stade Brestois 29 vs Marseille

Marseille beat Stade Brestois 29 5-1 in Ligue 1 on August 17, 2024.

Goals: M. Greenwood (3', 31' pen), Luis Henrique (26', 48'), M. Camara (45+6'), E. Wahi (69' pen).

Stade Brestois 29 controlled possession (50%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Brest.