Stade Brestois 29 1–0 Marseille: Result & Stats

Stade Brestois 29

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Marseille

P. Lees-Melou 88'

2/18/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Francis-Le Blé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Stade Brestois 2940%

×Draw24%

Marseille35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade Brestois 29Expected goals in this matchMarseille

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.44

Stade Brestois 29

1.55

Marseille

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

1.52

creates per match

1.57

1.30

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Stade Brestois 29

1.52

Marseille

1.57

allows per match

Stade Brestois 29

1.30

Marseille

1.58

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Stade Brestois 29-0.06on par

Marseille-0.02on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Brestois 29 ↓

Marseille →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stade Brestois 29 or draw

65%

Stade Brestois 29 or Marseille

76%

Draw or Marseille

60%

Winning margin

Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+

20%

Marseille wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals

79%

Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals

46%

Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals

20%

Marseille 1+ goals

76%

Marseille 2+ goals

42%

Marseille 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)

53%

Marseille (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Brestois 29 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.30 · 26 matches

Marseille away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.52 + Marseille defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.55

Marseille attack 1.57 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stade Brestois 29 scores more

40%

level

24%

Marseille scores more

35%

Stade Brestois 29 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stade Brestois 29 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

P. Lees-Melou

Stade Brestois 29 · M

8.7

Match Events

12'

35'

49'

60'

61'

P. Aubameyang← I. Sarr

66'

M. Satriano← R. Del Castillo

66'

J. Martin← K. Doumbia

73'

J. Le Douaron← Mathias Pereira Lage

76'

Luis Henrique← A. Harit

76'

G. Kondogbia← A. Ounahi

81'

J. Le Cardinal← H. Magnetti

88'

P. Lees-Melou

90+6'

Julien Le Cardinal

90'

J. Correa← J. Onana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StadeMarseille

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots9

1.76Expected Goals (xG)0.56

6Corners4

14Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target2

9Off Target4

1Blocked3

11Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

353Total Passes507

277Accurate Passes416

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Stade Brestois 29 vs Marseille

Stade Brestois 29 beat Marseille 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 18, 2024.

Goals: P. Lees-Melou (88').

Marseille controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Brest.

Stade Brestois 29 vs Marseille — Ligue 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stade Brestois 29 vs Marseille