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Stade Brestois 29 vs Concarneau — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Concarneau
Concarneau
A. Camblan 67'
L. Brassier 12'
A. Phliponeau 15'
7/22/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade Guy de Reals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stade Brestois 2948%
×Draw29%
Concarneau22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Brestois 29
1.27
Concarneau
0.76

Stade Brestois 29 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Stade Brestois 29
1.43
Concarneau
0.80

allows per match

Stade Brestois 29
0.71
Concarneau
1.10

finishing

Stade Brestois 29+0.00on par
Concarneau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 67Over: 3367%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 62Yes: 3862%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Brestois 29 ↓

Concarneau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Stade Brestois 29 or draw
78%
Stade Brestois 29 or Concarneau
71%
Draw or Concarneau
52%

Winning margin

Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+
22%
Concarneau wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals
72%
Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals
36%
Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals
14%
Concarneau 1+ goals
53%
Concarneau 2+ goals
18%
Concarneau 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)
69%
Concarneau (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Brestois 29 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Concarneau away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.43 + Concarneau defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Concarneau attack 0.80 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stade Brestois 29 scores more
48%
level
29%
Concarneau scores more
22%

Stade Brestois 29 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stade Brestois 29 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
L. Brassier
15'
A. Phliponeau
67'
A. Camblan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Brestois 29 vs Concarneau

Stade Brestois 29 beat Concarneau 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 22, 2023.

Goals: L. Brassier (12'), A. Phliponeau (15'), A. Camblan (67').

The match was played at Stade Guy de Reals in Plouvorn.