Concarneau 2–2 Stade Brestois 29: Result & Stats

Concarneau

AET

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Stade Brestois 29

S. Id Azza 92', 84'

V. Richetin 80'

J. Berthomier 43'

H. Diallo 14'

12/2/2017

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Guy Piriou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Concarneau30%

×Draw22%

Stade Brestois 2948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcarneauExpected goals in this matchStade Brestois 29

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.94

Concarneau

1.50

Stade Brestois 29

1.94

Stade Brestois 29 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.75

creates per match

1.88

2.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Concarneau

1.75

Stade Brestois 29

1.88

allows per match

Concarneau

2.00

Stade Brestois 29

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concarneau+0.00on par

Stade Brestois 29+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concarneau ↓

Stade Brestois 29 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Concarneau or draw

52%

Concarneau or Stade Brestois 29

78%

Draw or Stade Brestois 29

70%

Winning margin

Concarneau wins by 2+

14%

Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Concarneau 1+ goals

78%

Concarneau 2+ goals

44%

Concarneau 3+ goals

19%

Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals

86%

Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals

58%

Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Concarneau (draw refunded)

39%

Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concarneau at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Stade Brestois 29 away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concarneau attack 1.75 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.88 + Concarneau defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Concarneau scores more

30%

level

22%

Stade Brestois 29 scores more

48%

Stade Brestois 29 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stade Brestois 29 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

H. Diallo

43'

J. Berthomier

46'

Y. Lasimant← M. Edjouma

53'

J. Faussurier← J. Pi

56'

G. Gégousse← J. Donisa

61'

G. Charbonnier← M. Autret

79'

H. Koré← J. Drouglazet

80'

V. Richetin

84'

S. Id Azza

90+1'

E. Butin← J. Berthomier

92'

S. Id Azza

Concarneau

Stade

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: N. Cloarec

46'▲Y. Lasimant←▼M. Edjouma

56'▲G. Gégousse←▼J. Donisa

79'▲H. Koré←▼J. Drouglazet

Concarneau substitutes

LasimantGégousseKoréDemazeauSinquin

Manager: J. Furlan

53'▲J. Faussurier←▼J. Pi

61'▲G. Charbonnier←▼M. Autret

90+1'▲E. Butin←▼J. Berthomier

Stade Brestois 29 substitutes

FaussurierCharbonnierButinChardonnetLéon