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Stade Brestois 29 vs Beziers — Ligue 2 2018

Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beziers
Beziers
12/14/2018Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Francis-Le-Blé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stade Brestois 2958%
×Draw23%
Beziers19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Brestois 29
1.81
Beziers
0.93

Stade Brestois 29 creates 95% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

Stade Brestois 29
2.00
Beziers
1.05

allows per match

Stade Brestois 29
0.80
Beziers
1.63

finishing

Stade Brestois 29+0.00on par
Beziers+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Brestois 29 ↓

Beziers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stade Brestois 29 or draw
81%
Stade Brestois 29 or Beziers
77%
Draw or Beziers
42%

Winning margin

Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+
33%
Beziers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals
84%
Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals
54%
Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals
27%
Beziers 1+ goals
61%
Beziers 2+ goals
24%
Beziers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)
75%
Beziers (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Brestois 29 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Beziers away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Brestois 29 attack 2.00 + Beziers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

Beziers attack 1.05 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stade Brestois 29 scores more
58%
level
23%
Beziers scores more
19%

Stade Brestois 29 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Stade Brestois 29 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Stade Brestois 29 3–0 Beziers

Stade Brestois 29 beat Beziers 3-0 in Ligue 2 on December 14, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Francis-Le-Blé in Brest.