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Beziers vs Stade Brestois 29 — Ligue 2 2018

Beziers
Beziers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
5/3/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 36Stade de la Mediterranee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beziers23%
×Draw30%
Stade Brestois 2947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beziers
0.77
Stade Brestois 29
1.23

Stade Brestois 29 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Beziers
0.68
Stade Brestois 29
1.45

allows per match

Beziers
1.00
Stade Brestois 29
0.86

finishing

Beziers+0.00on par
Stade Brestois 29+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beziers ↓

Stade Brestois 29 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Beziers or draw
53%
Beziers or Stade Brestois 29
70%
Draw or Stade Brestois 29
77%

Winning margin

Beziers wins by 2+
7%
Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Beziers 1+ goals
54%
Beziers 2+ goals
18%
Beziers 3+ goals
4%
Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals
71%
Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals
35%
Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Beziers (draw refunded)
33%
Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beziers at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Stade Brestois 29 away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beziers attack 0.68 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.45 + Beziers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beziers scores more
23%
level
30%
Stade Brestois 29 scores more
47%

Stade Brestois 29 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stade Brestois 29 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Beziers 1–0 Stade Brestois 29

Beziers beat Stade Brestois 29 1-0 in Ligue 2 on May 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de la Mediterranee in Beziers.