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Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
CANC
00:00
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
6/30/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 13Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Stabaek42%
×Draw25%
Sarpsborg 08 FF33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.50
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.31

Stabaek creates 15% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 110 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.25
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.35

allows per match

Stabaek
1.28
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.76

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par
Sarpsborg 08 FF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
67%
Stabaek or Sarpsborg 08 FF
75%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
58%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
20%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
78%
Stabaek 2+ goals
44%
Stabaek 3+ goals
19%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
73%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
38%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
56%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 60 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.76 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.25 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.35 + Stabaek defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stabaek scores more
42%
level
25%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
33%

Stabaek at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Match Preview

Stabaek face Sarpsborg 08 FF on June 30, 2021 in this Eliteserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stabaek host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Nadderud Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.