Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–2 Stabaek: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Stabaek

K. Opseth 78'

R. Lundqvist 29'

R. Vinge 84'

S. Ottesen 47'

10/29/2023

Eliteserien · Round 26Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF49%

×Draw24%

Stabaek27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.23

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.73

Stabaek

1.23

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 41% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 59 away

1.55

creates per match

1.10

1.35

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.55

Stabaek

1.10

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.35

Stabaek

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF+0.00on par

Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

73%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Stabaek

76%

Draw or Stabaek

51%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

26%

Stabaek wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

82%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

52%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

25%

Stabaek 1+ goals

71%

Stabaek 2+ goals

35%

Stabaek 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

64%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.55 + Stabaek defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stabaek attack 1.10 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

49%

level

24%

Stabaek scores more

27%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Andersen

Sarpsborg 08 FF · M

7.9

Match Events

29'

R. Lundqvist↳ J. Andersen

46'

F. Krogstad← O. Spiten-Nysæter

47'

S. Ottesen↳ M. Bakenga

65'

R. Zekhnini← N. Sandberg

65'

K. Opseth← S. Tibbling

73'

A. Hiim← S. Christiansen

73'

K. Jelacic← F. Haugen

74'

L. Kjerrumgaard← M. Bakenga

76'

P. Reinhardsen← E. Wichne

78'

K. Opseth↳ P. Reinhardsen

84'

R. Vinge↳ N. Walstad

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgStabaek

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots10

2.56Expected Goals (xG)0.55

8Corners1

10Fouls6

Shots

19Total Shots10

7On Target4

6Off Target5

6Blocked1

13Inside Box3

6Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

590Total Passes392

491Accurate Passes306

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls6

3Offsides0