Stabaek 1–3 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

Stabaek

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Sarpsborg 08 FF

H. Vetlesen 22'

K. Larsen 23'

P. Mortensen 9'

J. Tamm 2'

8/5/2018

Eliteserien · Round 17Nadderud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stabaek32%

×Draw24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.71

Stabaek

1.41

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.71

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 38 away

1.09

creates per match

1.76

1.65

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Stabaek

1.09

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.76

allows per match

Stabaek

1.65

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.73

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Stabaek-0.09on par

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

55%

Stabaek or Sarpsborg 08 FF

76%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

68%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

14%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

76%

Stabaek 2+ goals

41%

Stabaek 3+ goals

17%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

82%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

51%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

42%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.65 · 6 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.73 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.09 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Stabaek defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stabaek scores more

32%

level

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

45%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

78

A. Vasyutin

Sarpsborg 08 FF · G

8.3

Match Events

2'

9'

22'

23'

43'

Tobias Borchgrevink Borkeeiet

46'

M. Njie← E. Bohinen

46'

R. Hernández← A. Hanche-Olsen

53'

A. Askar← K. Larsen

59'

M. Lund Nielsen← M. Agger

77'

Joachim Thomassen

78'

O. Brynhildsen← J. Sæter

80'

Ole Jørgen Halvorsen

80'

M. Usman← O. Halvorsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekSarpsborg

Overview

58%Possession42%

22Total Shots6

6Corners0

8Fouls16

Shots

22Total Shots6

10On Target4

6Off Target1

6Blocked1

16Inside Box5

6Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

434Total Passes320

326Accurate Passes218

75%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

8Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2