Stabaek 0–1 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Stabaek

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Molde

V. Berisha 62' (pen)

7/29/2023

Eliteserien · Round 16Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stabaek32%

×Draw26%

Molde42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.45

Stabaek

1.23

Molde

1.45

Molde creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 37 away

1.16

creates per match

1.47

1.43

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Stabaek

1.16

Molde

1.47

allows per match

Stabaek

1.43

Molde

1.29

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Stabaek+0.04on par

Molde-0.01on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

58%

Stabaek or Molde

74%

Draw or Molde

68%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

13%

Molde wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

71%

Stabaek 2+ goals

35%

Stabaek 3+ goals

13%

Molde 1+ goals

77%

Molde 2+ goals

42%

Molde 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

43%

Molde (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Molde away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.16 + Molde defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Molde attack 1.47 + Stabaek defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stabaek scores more

32%

level

26%

Molde scores more

42%

Molde at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Kitolano

Molde · F

7.5

Match Events

57'

C. Edwards← H. Geelmuyden

57'

T. Pachonik← N. Walstad

62'

V. BerishaPenalty

70'

K. Kostadinov← F. Krogstad

72'

M. Ellingsen← M. Kaasa

72'

M. Linnes← E. Knudtzon

72'

B. Hansen← E. Haugan

81'

E. Breivik← M. Grødem

86'

M. Eikrem← E. Kitolano

90+6'

Anders Hagelskjær

90'

A. Andresen← S. Ottesen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekMolde

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots11

0.39Expected Goals (xG)1.60

4Corners5

9Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots11

1On Target4

2Off Target3

4Blocked4

4Inside Box10

3Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

467Total Passes491

355Accurate Passes392

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides6

Eliteserien: Stabaek 0–1 Molde

Molde beat Stabaek 1-0 in Eliteserien on July 29, 2023.

Goals: V. Berisha (62' pen).

Molde controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Nadderud Stadion in Bærum.

Stabaek vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stabaek 0–1 Molde