Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Molde vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Molde
Molde
CANC
16:00
Stabaek
Stabaek
5/2/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 6Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Molde53%
×Draw21%
Stabaek26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
2.06
Stabaek
1.38

Molde creates 49% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 7 away

creates per match

Molde
1.98
Stabaek
1.63

allows per match

Molde
1.13
Stabaek
2.15

finishing

Molde+0.21scores more
Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Stabaek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Molde or draw
74%
Molde or Stabaek
79%
Draw or Stabaek
47%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
31%
Stabaek wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
87%
Molde 2+ goals
61%
Molde 3+ goals
34%
Stabaek 1+ goals
75%
Stabaek 2+ goals
40%
Stabaek 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
67%
Stabaek (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.98 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.06

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Molde defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Molde scores more
53%
level
21%
Stabaek scores more
26%

Molde at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Molde host Stabaek

May 2, 2021: Molde take on Stabaek in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Molde host Stabaek at Aker Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.