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Stabaek vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Molde
Molde
L. James 85', 45+1'
S. Gregersen 81'
11/21/2020EliteserienEliteserien · Round 25Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stabaek32%
×Draw26%
Molde42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.23
Molde
1.45

Molde creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 37 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.16
Molde
1.47

allows per match

Stabaek
1.43
Molde
1.29

finishing

Stabaek+0.04on par
Molde-0.01on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Molde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
58%
Stabaek or Molde
74%
Draw or Molde
68%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
13%
Molde wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
71%
Stabaek 2+ goals
35%
Stabaek 3+ goals
13%
Molde 1+ goals
77%
Molde 2+ goals
42%
Molde 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
43%
Molde (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Molde away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.16 + Molde defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Molde attack 1.47 + Stabaek defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stabaek scores more
32%
level
26%
Molde scores more
42%

Molde at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. JamesMoldeMolde · F
8.3

Match Events

45+1'
L. James↳ B. Risa
52'
K. Haugen← B. Risa
60'
Fredrik Aursnes
60'
E. Hestad← M. Eikrem
61'
S. Gregersen← M. Bjørnbak
71'
E. Botheim← M. Antonsson
71'
L. Kassi← T. Lumanza
79'
K. Hansen← D. Maatsen
79'
E. Jonassen← M. Solheim
81'
S. Gregersen
84'
E. Knudtzon← O. Brynhildsen
85'
L. James
86'
K. Kinoshita← O. Edvardsen

Possession

Stabaek: 38Molde: 6238%Stabaek

Shots

Stabaek: 7Molde: 177Stabaek

Pass accuracy

Stabaek: 69Molde: 8146%Stabaek

Statistics

StabaekMolde
Overview
38%Possession62%
7Total Shots17
2Corners11
11Fouls10
Shots
7Total Shots17
2On Target7
4Off Target5
1Blocked5
6Inside Box12
1Outside Box5
Passing
38%Possession62%
325Total Passes537
224Accurate Passes437
69%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Stabaek vs Molde

Molde beat Stabaek 3-0 in Eliteserien on November 21, 2020.

Goals: L. James (45+1', 85'), S. Gregersen (81').

Molde controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Nadderud Stadion in Bekkestua.