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Stabaek vs Haugesund — 1. Division 2018

Stabaek
Stabaek
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Haugesund
Haugesund
4/26/20261. Division1. Division · Round 4Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Stabaek39%
×Draw20%
Haugesund41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
2.17
Haugesund
2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 8 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.96
Haugesund
3.13

allows per match

Stabaek
1.33
Haugesund
2.38

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par
Haugesund+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
59%
Stabaek or Haugesund
80%
Draw or Haugesund
61%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
22%
Haugesund wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
89%
Stabaek 2+ goals
64%
Stabaek 3+ goals
36%
Haugesund 1+ goals
89%
Haugesund 2+ goals
65%
Haugesund 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
49%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Haugesund away — creates 3.13, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.96 + Haugesund defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.17

Haugesund attack 3.13 + Stabaek defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stabaek scores more
39%
level
20%
Haugesund scores more
41%

Haugesund at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Stabaek 3–2 Haugesund

Stabaek beat Haugesund 3-2 in 1. Division on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Nadderud Stadion in Bekkestua.