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Haugesund vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
CANC
16:00
Stabaek
Stabaek
5/30/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 10Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Haugesund46%
×Draw24%
Stabaek30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
1.63
Stabaek
1.28

Haugesund creates 27% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 67 away

creates per match

Haugesund
1.39
Stabaek
1.15

allows per match

Haugesund
1.41
Stabaek
1.88

finishing

Haugesund+0.00on par
Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Stabaek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
70%
Haugesund or Stabaek
76%
Draw or Stabaek
54%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
24%
Stabaek wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
80%
Haugesund 2+ goals
48%
Haugesund 3+ goals
22%
Stabaek 1+ goals
72%
Stabaek 2+ goals
37%
Stabaek 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
60%
Stabaek (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.41 · 113 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.88 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.39 + Stabaek defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Stabaek attack 1.15 + Haugesund defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Haugesund scores more
46%
level
24%
Stabaek scores more
30%

Haugesund at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haugesund vs Stabaek — Match Preview

Haugesund face Stabaek on May 30, 2021 in this Eliteserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Haugesund host Stabaek at Haugesund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.