Stabaek 2–1 Haugesund: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Stabaek

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Haugesund

D. Maatsen 76'

A. Hanche-Olsen 12'

A. Hanche-Olsen 33' (OG)

9/12/2020

Eliteserien · Round 17Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stabaek49%

×Draw23%

Haugesund27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.25

Stabaek

1.76

Haugesund

1.25

Stabaek creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 30 away

1.16

creates per match

1.07

1.43

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Stabaek

1.16

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Stabaek

1.43

Haugesund

2.36

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Stabaek+0.04on par

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

73%

Stabaek or Haugesund

77%

Draw or Haugesund

51%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

27%

Haugesund wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

83%

Stabaek 2+ goals

52%

Stabaek 3+ goals

26%

Haugesund 1+ goals

71%

Haugesund 2+ goals

36%

Haugesund 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

64%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.16 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.76

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Stabaek defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stabaek scores more

49%

level

23%

Haugesund scores more

27%

Stabaek at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Maatsen

Stabaek · F

7.5

Match Events

12'

A. Hanche-Olsen

17'

Sammy Skytte

30'

Mats Solheim

33'

A. Hanche-OlsenOwn goal

39'

M. Lundal← T. Lumanza

58'

Niklas Sandberg

69'

K. Hansen← H. Vetlesen

69'

D. Maatsen← E. Botheim

69'

Y. Amankwah← M. Solheim

76'

D. Maatsen

82'

Thore Baardsen Pedersen

85'

K. Krygård← Bruno Leite

85'

I. Koné← C. Grindheim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekHaugesund

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots14

4Corners10

13Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots14

5On Target4

5Off Target5

2Blocked5

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

372Total Passes331

275Accurate Passes251

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Stabaek vs Haugesund

Stabaek beat Haugesund 2-1 in Eliteserien on September 12, 2020.

Goals: A. Hanche-Olsen (12', 33' o.g.), D. Maatsen (76').

Stabaek controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Nadderud Stadion in Bekkestua.

Stabaek vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stabaek vs Haugesund