Stabaek 1–4 Aalesund: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Stabaek

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Aalesund

M. Dahlby 90+2'

Cláudio Braga 81', 37'

J. Seehusen 77'

M. Rafferty 3'

11/9/2024

1. Division · Round 30Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stabaek43%

×Draw23%

Aalesund33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.46

Stabaek

1.70

Aalesund

1.46

Stabaek creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 59 away

1.96

creates per match

1.59

1.33

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Stabaek

1.96

Aalesund

1.59

allows per match

Stabaek

1.33

Aalesund

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par

Aalesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

67%

Stabaek or Aalesund

77%

Draw or Aalesund

57%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

23%

Aalesund wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

82%

Stabaek 2+ goals

51%

Stabaek 3+ goals

24%

Aalesund 1+ goals

77%

Aalesund 2+ goals

43%

Aalesund 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

57%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.44 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.96 + Aalesund defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.70

Aalesund attack 1.59 + Stabaek defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stabaek scores more

43%

level

23%

Aalesund scores more

33%

Stabaek at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. Rafferty

32'

O. Spiten-Nysæter← O. Veum

37'

Cláudio Braga

46'

S. Olderheim← T. Roberts

46'

61'

70'

70'

70'

71'

77'

81'

85'

87'

H. Melland← M. Rafferty

87'

K. Lonebu← Cláudio Braga

90+2'

J. Nysveen← A. Hoven

90+1'

S. Haram← V. Međimorec

90+1'

E. Kolve← J. Seehusen

90+2'

M. Dahlby

Stabaek

Aalesund

26

Larsen

5

Grøgaard

2

Nielsen

3

▼

25

44

6

66

⚽

▼

Seehusen

22

⚽

▼

Rafferty

10

⚽2

▼

Braga

19

▼

Ngongo

1

Rossbach

5

▼

Skjelvik

4

Næss

2

Pedersen

15

▼

Veum

29

Ekorness

16

▼

Hoven

14

▼

Roberts

7

▼

Vinge

27

Wendt

9

Diabaté

Manager: B. Riise

32'▲O. Spiten-Nysæter←▼O. Veum

46'▲S. Olderheim←▼T. Roberts

46'▲A. Bawa←▼J. Skjelvik

85'▲M. Dahlby←▼R. Vinge

90+2'▲J. Nysveen←▼A. Hoven

Stabaek substitutes

21Spiten-Nysæter17Olderheim18Bawa8Dahlby26Nysveen3Øya23Ulla28Tobiassen32Victorio

Manager: K. Rekdal

71'▲S. Kilen←▼P. Ngongo

87'▲H. Melland←▼M. Rafferty

87'▲K. Lonebu←▼Cláudio Braga

90+1'▲S. Haram←▼V. Međimorec

90+1'▲E. Kolve←▼J. Seehusen

Aalesund substitutes

15Kilen8Melland39Lonebu14Haram28Kolve17Solskjær24Midthjell29Kristensen33Holte