Aalesund 1–1 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Aalesund

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stabaek

E. Segberg 16'

K. Kostadinov 45'

9/23/2023

Eliteserien · Round 23Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Aalesund44%

×Draw22%

Stabaek34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.67

Aalesund

1.94

Stabaek

1.67

Aalesund creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

1.73

creates per match

1.63

1.72

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Aalesund

1.73

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Aalesund

1.72

Stabaek

2.15

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Aalesund-0.44scores less

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

66%

Aalesund or Stabaek

78%

Draw or Stabaek

56%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

25%

Stabaek wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

86%

Aalesund 2+ goals

58%

Aalesund 3+ goals

30%

Stabaek 1+ goals

81%

Stabaek 2+ goals

50%

Stabaek 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

57%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.72 · 14 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.73 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.94

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Aalesund defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aalesund scores more

44%

level

22%

Stabaek scores more

34%

Aalesund at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

N. Næss

Stabaek · D

7.5

Match Events

16'

E. Segberg↳ M. Karlsbakk

45'

K. Kostadinov↳ R. Vinge

46'

Erik Ansok Fröysa

46'

I. Atanga← M. Diop

46'

K. Kabran← K. Jelacic

60'

F. Haugen← G. Vetti

60'

M. Bakenga← L. Kjerrumgaard

64'

H. Melland← M. Karlsbakk

65'

Isaac Atanga

71'

John Kitolano

78'

F. Krogstad← K. Kostadinov

81'

E. Moses← E. Segberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalesundStabaek

Overview

34%Possession66%

12Total Shots15

2.60Expected Goals (xG)1.24

3Corners4

17Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots15

6On Target3

3Off Target7

3Blocked5

9Inside Box8

3Outside Box7

Passing

34%Possession66%

290Total Passes587

184Accurate Passes484

63%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls17

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Aalesund vs Stabaek

Aalesund and Stabaek drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on September 23, 2023.

Goals: E. Segberg (16'), K. Kostadinov (45').

Stabaek controlled possession (66%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.

Aalesund vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Aalesund vs Stabaek