Stabaek 1–0 Aalesund: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Stabaek

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aalesund

K. Kabran 76'

5/13/2023

Eliteserien · Round 6Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stabaek46%

×Draw23%

Aalesund31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.39

Stabaek

1.75

Aalesund

1.39

Stabaek creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.09

creates per match

1.13

1.65

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Stabaek

1.09

Aalesund

1.13

allows per match

Stabaek

1.65

Aalesund

2.41

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Stabaek-0.09on par

Aalesund-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

69%

Stabaek or Aalesund

77%

Draw or Aalesund

54%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

25%

Aalesund wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

83%

Stabaek 2+ goals

52%

Stabaek 3+ goals

25%

Aalesund 1+ goals

75%

Aalesund 2+ goals

40%

Aalesund 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

60%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.65 · 6 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.41 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.09 + Aalesund defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.75

Aalesund attack 1.13 + Stabaek defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stabaek scores more

46%

level

23%

Aalesund scores more

31%

Stabaek at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

I. Pettersson

Stabaek · G

8.3

Match Events

64'

A. Andresen← S. Ottesen

64'

M. Karlsbakk← I. Atanga

64'

K. Ødemarksbakken← K. Lunding

64'

B. Kristensen← E. Moses

70'

K. Kabran← K. Høgh

70'

K. Kostadinov← C. Edwards

76'

K. Kabran↳ N. Næss

82'

S. Wangberg← N. Næss

86'

O. Kolskogen← N. Hopland

90+1'

Ole Martin Lekven Kolskogen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekAalesund

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots14

4Corners7

10Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots14

3On Target5

5Off Target6

3Blocked3

9Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

434Total Passes289

255Accurate Passes137

59%Pass Accuracy47%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4