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Stabæk II vs Skeid II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Stabæk II
Stabæk II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Skeid II
Skeid II
5/14/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 6Nadderud Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stabæk II44%
×Draw20%
Skeid II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabæk II
2.34
Skeid II
2.12

Stabæk II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Stabæk II
2.23
Skeid II
2.31

allows per match

Stabæk II
1.92
Skeid II
2.46

finishing

Stabæk II+0.00on par
Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabæk II ↓

Skeid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Stabæk II or draw
64%
Stabæk II or Skeid II
80%
Draw or Skeid II
56%

Winning margin

Stabæk II wins by 2+
26%
Skeid II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stabæk II 1+ goals
90%
Stabæk II 2+ goals
67%
Stabæk II 3+ goals
41%
Skeid II 1+ goals
88%
Skeid II 2+ goals
62%
Skeid II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Stabæk II (draw refunded)
55%
Skeid II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabæk II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Skeid II away — creates 2.31, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabæk II attack 2.23 + Skeid II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.34

Skeid II attack 2.31 + Stabæk II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stabæk II scores more
44%
level
20%
Skeid II scores more
36%

Stabæk II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stabæk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Stabæk II 0–3 Skeid II

Skeid II beat Stabæk II 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Nadderud Kunstgress in Bekkestua.