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Skeid II vs Stabæk II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Skeid II
Skeid II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stabæk II
Stabæk II
9/13/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 20Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skeid II44%
×Draw21%
Stabæk II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skeid II
2.08
Stabæk II
1.86

Skeid II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Skeid II
1.92
Stabæk II
1.73

allows per match

Skeid II
2.00
Stabæk II
2.23

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par
Stabæk II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Stabæk II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw
65%
Skeid II or Stabæk II
79%
Draw or Stabæk II
56%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+
25%
Stabæk II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals
87%
Skeid II 2+ goals
61%
Skeid II 3+ goals
34%
Stabæk II 1+ goals
84%
Stabæk II 2+ goals
55%
Stabæk II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)
55%
Stabæk II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Stabæk II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 1.92 + Stabæk II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.08

Stabæk II attack 1.73 + Skeid II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Skeid II scores more
44%
level
21%
Stabæk II scores more
35%

Skeid II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Skeid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skeid II vs Stabæk II

Skeid II beat Stabæk II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 13, 2022.

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.