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Staal Jørpeland vs Sandnes Ulf II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
9/28/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 22Jørpeland stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Staal Jørpeland57%
×Draw18%
Sandnes Ulf II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staal Jørpeland
2.96
Sandnes Ulf II
1.96

Staal Jørpeland creates 51% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Staal Jørpeland
2.54
Sandnes Ulf II
0.92

allows per match

Staal Jørpeland
3.00
Sandnes Ulf II
3.38

finishing

Staal Jørpeland+0.00on par
Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staal Jørpeland ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Staal Jørpeland or draw
75%
Staal Jørpeland or Sandnes Ulf II
82%
Draw or Sandnes Ulf II
43%

Winning margin

Staal Jørpeland wins by 2+
38%
Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Staal Jørpeland 1+ goals
95%
Staal Jørpeland 2+ goals
79%
Staal Jørpeland 3+ goals
55%
Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
86%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
58%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Staal Jørpeland (draw refunded)
70%
Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staal Jørpeland at home — creates 2.54, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staal Jørpeland attack 2.54 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.96

Sandnes Ulf II attack 0.92 + Staal Jørpeland defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Staal Jørpeland scores more
57%
level
18%
Sandnes Ulf II scores more
25%

Staal Jørpeland at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Staal Jørpeland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Staal Jørpeland 5–2 Sandnes Ulf II

Staal Jørpeland beat Sandnes Ulf II 5-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Jørpeland stadion in Jørpeland.